What is going on?

New York in play? [Link]

The Siena poll of likely voters in New York shows just how bad Obama has fared. He lost 13 points off his lead since clinching the nomination, and now barely leads outside the margin of error — and can’t get to a majority:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

McCain has made significant gains in New York largely on national security and personal attributes. He wins on terrorism, 54-33, and edges Obama in ensuring American strength, 47-41. McCain obliterates him on personal qualities, especially patriotism (59-21), experience (73-18), and perhaps most unsettling for Team O, integrity (43-38).

New Jersey in play? [Link]

Barack Obama has another Atlantic seaboard state slipping away from him. A new Quinnipiac survey shows Obama losing seven points in a month and declining to a virtual tie in New Jersey. With New York down to a five-point lead, the traditional Democratic bastions have now come into play in the election, boding ill for Obama in more traditional battleground states:

The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state’s fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points. …

In New Jersey, Obama has a 56%-34% favorable rating, while McCain is at 56%-35%. GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is at 42%-32%, while Joe Biden, the Democratic VP candidate, is at 48%-25%. Nearly six out of ten New Jersey voters (58%) say McCain’s choice of Palin was a good one, while 59% say Obama made a good pick in Biden.

“In addition to the Palin bounce, Republicans seem to be scoring points with their attacks on the Obama tax plan,” Richards said.

The economy remains the biggest issue in the election in New Jersey, as in most other states. However, Obama’s edge has narrowed to almost a tie on the economy, edging McCain by only five points, 48-43. On foreign policy, McCain has a 2-1 advantage over Obama, 64-27.

Are we in Bizarroland? Quickly looks outside for zeppelins in the sky. Nope, no zeppelins, but this is weird.