TV Business going the way of the Newspaper, Buggy Whip Makers

I think this is right, but I think his timetable is off, the TV business is where newspapers were 15-20 years ago. The cracks are beginning to show, and everyone sees them except the TV people. There's lot of time for denial and rearranging deck chairs. [Link]

There are murmurings on the edges about how longstanding business models will come under pressure as Internet distribution takes over. But, so far, the revenue and profits are hanging in there, so the big TV companies don’t really care.

Specifically, the TV industry’s attitude is the same as the newspaper industry’s attitude was circa 2002-2003: Stop calling us dinosaurs: We get digital; We’re growing our digital businesses; We’re investing in digital platforms; People still recall ads even when they fast-foward through them on DVRs; There’s no subtitute for TV ads. And traditional TV isn’t going away: Just look at our revenue and profits!

After saying all this same stuff for years, the newspaper industry figured out the hard way that, eventually, reality intrudes, that you can’t stuff the genie back in the bottle. And over the next 5-10 years, the TV industry will figure this out, too.

Here’s the problem in a nutshell: