Ignore the middle at your peril

Why Left vs Right is not enough. [Link]

Looking at why Obama seems to be having such a popularity collapse suggests that models of the polity that were bipolar - i.e. D's and R's - probably don't represent reality as models that are tripolar - D's, R's, and I's. And while the I's may be largely ideologically rooted in one side or the other, their "brand attachment" is weak, meaning that they can be flipped easily or else that they aren't necessarily going to come out and vote unless they are engaged.

Both GWB and Obama managed to engage a large group of these I's; in each case for a variety of historical reasons, but also, I'll suggest because they presented as postpartisan - as essentially independent-friendly candidates.

No Republican is going to seriously chase Henry Waxman's support, and no Democrat is going to seriously chase Newt Gingrich's. The folks clustered at the ends of the spectrum are essentially locked in via brand attachment. But there's a ever-increasing cloud of people in the middle - call it for grins the Althouse - Danziger - Kaus - Reynolds axis, who are tippable. And not just tippable once and then stable (in the manner of Southern Democrats facing a McGovern candidacy), but tippable election to election, issue to issue (almost week to week).